Every September, Nassau County hands us a fresh set of numbers — and this year’s tell two different stories depending on whether you’re looking at the county or at Garden City specifically. Here’s both, and why only one of them should worry you.

The county-wide picture: still tightening

Nassau County’s median sale price in September 2026 was $860,000, up 2.1% from $842,500 a year ago. Price per square foot climbed more — $539 versus $502, a 7.4% jump — which is actually the more reliable signal here, since it isn’t skewed by which size homes happened to sell this month.

Pending sales rose to 696 from 680, even as new listings dropped to 911 from 1,037. That combination — more demand chasing less supply — is why homes are also moving a touch faster: 25 days on market versus 26 last September.

None of this reads like a market losing steam. It reads like one getting tighter.

Mortgage rates, for context

The 30-year fixed averaged around 7.57% this week, up about 1.2 points year-over-year. Higher rates haven’t slowed Nassau down — the pending sales and price data above were pulled with that rate environment already in effect.

Garden City: don’t be fooled by one number

Here’s where it gets interesting. Garden City’s median sale price dropped to $1,100,000 from $1,510,000 — a headline that looks like a 27% decline. It isn’t one, and here’s the math that explains why.

Only 9 homes closed in Garden City last month, compared to 26 the year before. When a market this small has that few transactions, the median can swing wildly based on which specific homes happened to sell — a single $2M closing missing from the mix, or an extra starter-home sale, moves the number far more than it would in a deeper pool.

Look at price per square foot instead — the steadier read — and Garden City is down about 5.4% ($615 vs. $650), not 27%. And there are still 11 homes pending right now, so the demand hasn’t dried up either; there just weren’t many closings to average this particular month.

What this means for you

If you’re buying: rates are higher, but across Nassau, homes are still moving fast and getting close to full price. Waiting for rates to drop meaningfully is a bet, not a plan.

If you’re selling: supply is shrinking faster than demand right now. If you’ve been sitting on the fence, this is your window.

The takeaway: it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market.

Want to know what this means for your specific home or search? Email me at meaghan.montegari@compass.com — I’m always happy to run the numbers for your street specifically.

xo, Meaghan

Market data reflects Nassau County and Garden City, NY residential sales for September 2026. Mortgage rate source: Mortgage News Daily, 10/2/2026. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is not financial advice.